今年3月,以硅谷銀行(Silicon Valley Bank)破產(chǎn)為首的一系列銀行業(yè)危機,迫使包括摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)在內的多家銀行的分析師從頭開始重寫他們對經(jīng)濟衰退的預測,因為幾個月來對抗通脹的小勝利和相對強勁的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)很有可能在兩周內被一掃而空。
即使政府和私營部門能夠成功遏制銀行倒閉引發(fā)的蔓延風險,但仍然可能對美國的金融體系造成持久損害。歐洲和美國的一些銀行正處于搖搖欲墜的狀態(tài),而動蕩不安的市場和加強監(jiān)管的承諾可能導致信貸緊縮——由于缺乏資金,銀行的放貸意愿急劇下降。
這讓美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)在3月22日的會議上陷入兩難境地:要么放慢加息步伐,要么冒著加大經(jīng)濟損害的風險,繼續(xù)加息以避免通脹卷土重來。但就美聯(lián)儲而言,實現(xiàn)軟著陸和避免經(jīng)濟衰退的希望可能已經(jīng)成為過去。
3月20日,由摩根大通的全球市場首席策略師馬爾科·科拉諾維奇為首的多位策略師在給客戶的一份說明中寫道:“美聯(lián)儲在3月22日面臨著一項艱巨的任務,但它很可能已經(jīng)走上了不歸路。現(xiàn)在看來不太可能實現(xiàn)軟著陸,飛機陷入混亂(缺乏市場信心),引擎即將關閉(銀行貸款)?!?/p>
目前尚不清楚硅谷銀行倒閉的影響會蔓延到多少國家??偛课挥诩~約的簽名銀行(Signature Bank)在硅谷銀行倒閉數(shù)天后倒閉,這需要政府采取全面的措施來恢復人們的信心(這兩家銀行的賬戶持有人可以得到全額補償),但其他小型和地區(qū)性銀行的處境仍然很不穩(wěn)定??偛课挥谂f金山的第一共和銀行(First Republic)依舊面臨很高的風險,盡管美國的大型銀行在上周聯(lián)合起來注入了300億美元存款,以支撐其財務狀況。美國財政部的部長珍妮特·耶倫在3月21日還承諾,如果其他銀行的問題“構成蔓延風險”,政府就準備再次介入。即使儲戶得到了保護,但可能已經(jīng)造成了損害。
摩根大通寫道:“即使央行成功遏制了蔓延,由于市場和監(jiān)管機構的壓力,信貸環(huán)境看起來也將更快收緊?!?/p>
分析師們將當前的挑戰(zhàn)稱為可能出現(xiàn)的“明斯基時刻”(Minsky Moment),這一術語以美國經(jīng)濟學家海曼·明斯基的名字命名,他的著名預言是,長期牛市總是以史詩般的崩盤告終。當支票到期,紙牌屋最終倒塌時,就會出現(xiàn)明斯基時刻。摩根大通分析師寫道,明斯基時刻正在臨近。
投資者和歷史學家多年來一直警告,美國自2009年以來的長期牛市將導致經(jīng)濟過度修正,這是不可避免的。投資者和市場歷史學家杰里米·格蘭瑟姆在2021年寫道:“自2009年迄今這一長而又長的牛市,終于膨脹成了完全成熟的史詩級泡沫。”最近,格蘭瑟姆一直在警告吞噬一切的“萬物皆泡沫”的出現(xiàn),他在今年3月接受經(jīng)濟學家大衛(wèi)·羅森伯格采訪時稱這個泡沫“相當大”。
“‘有的時候,幾十年什么也沒發(fā)生;有的時候,幾個星期頂幾十年?!蹦Ω笸ǚ治鰩煂懙?,并引用了弗拉基米爾·列寧的名言。
摩根大通并不是唯一一家在最近幾周下調經(jīng)濟預測的大型銀行;高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)上周也對客戶表示,銀行業(yè)危機可能會給美國經(jīng)濟增長帶來嚴重打擊。美國財政部的前部長拉里·薩默斯近幾個月來,甚至在銀行業(yè)危機爆發(fā)前,就曾經(jīng)多次警告說,經(jīng)濟也可能走向“威利狼時刻”(Wile E. Coyote Moment),即已經(jīng)沖出懸崖,但仍對即將發(fā)生的崩盤渾然不覺,還在優(yōu)哉游哉。
美國歷史上始于2009年的最長牛市,直到2020年才因為新冠疫情而終結。2020年短暫的經(jīng)濟衰退很快被2021年的另一輪猛烈的牛市所取代,但在經(jīng)濟增長放緩一年之后,人們期待已久的明斯基時刻或者威利狼時刻可能終于到來了。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
今年3月,以硅谷銀行(Silicon Valley Bank)破產(chǎn)為首的一系列銀行業(yè)危機,迫使包括摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)在內的多家銀行的分析師從頭開始重寫他們對經(jīng)濟衰退的預測,因為幾個月來對抗通脹的小勝利和相對強勁的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)很有可能在兩周內被一掃而空。
即使政府和私營部門能夠成功遏制銀行倒閉引發(fā)的蔓延風險,但仍然可能對美國的金融體系造成持久損害。歐洲和美國的一些銀行正處于搖搖欲墜的狀態(tài),而動蕩不安的市場和加強監(jiān)管的承諾可能導致信貸緊縮——由于缺乏資金,銀行的放貸意愿急劇下降。
這讓美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)在3月22日的會議上陷入兩難境地:要么放慢加息步伐,要么冒著加大經(jīng)濟損害的風險,繼續(xù)加息以避免通脹卷土重來。但就美聯(lián)儲而言,實現(xiàn)軟著陸和避免經(jīng)濟衰退的希望可能已經(jīng)成為過去。
3月20日,由摩根大通的全球市場首席策略師馬爾科·科拉諾維奇為首的多位策略師在給客戶的一份說明中寫道:“美聯(lián)儲在3月22日面臨著一項艱巨的任務,但它很可能已經(jīng)走上了不歸路?,F(xiàn)在看來不太可能實現(xiàn)軟著陸,飛機陷入混亂(缺乏市場信心),引擎即將關閉(銀行貸款)?!?/p>
目前尚不清楚硅谷銀行倒閉的影響會蔓延到多少國家??偛课挥诩~約的簽名銀行(Signature Bank)在硅谷銀行倒閉數(shù)天后倒閉,這需要政府采取全面的措施來恢復人們的信心(這兩家銀行的賬戶持有人可以得到全額補償),但其他小型和地區(qū)性銀行的處境仍然很不穩(wěn)定。總部位于舊金山的第一共和銀行(First Republic)依舊面臨很高的風險,盡管美國的大型銀行在上周聯(lián)合起來注入了300億美元存款,以支撐其財務狀況。美國財政部的部長珍妮特·耶倫在3月21日還承諾,如果其他銀行的問題“構成蔓延風險”,政府就準備再次介入。即使儲戶得到了保護,但可能已經(jīng)造成了損害。
摩根大通寫道:“即使央行成功遏制了蔓延,由于市場和監(jiān)管機構的壓力,信貸環(huán)境看起來也將更快收緊?!?/p>
分析師們將當前的挑戰(zhàn)稱為可能出現(xiàn)的“明斯基時刻”(Minsky Moment),這一術語以美國經(jīng)濟學家海曼·明斯基的名字命名,他的著名預言是,長期牛市總是以史詩般的崩盤告終。當支票到期,紙牌屋最終倒塌時,就會出現(xiàn)明斯基時刻。摩根大通分析師寫道,明斯基時刻正在臨近。
投資者和歷史學家多年來一直警告,美國自2009年以來的長期牛市將導致經(jīng)濟過度修正,這是不可避免的。投資者和市場歷史學家杰里米·格蘭瑟姆在2021年寫道:“自2009年迄今這一長而又長的牛市,終于膨脹成了完全成熟的史詩級泡沫?!弊罱?,格蘭瑟姆一直在警告吞噬一切的“萬物皆泡沫”的出現(xiàn),他在今年3月接受經(jīng)濟學家大衛(wèi)·羅森伯格采訪時稱這個泡沫“相當大”。
“‘有的時候,幾十年什么也沒發(fā)生;有的時候,幾個星期頂幾十年?!蹦Ω笸ǚ治鰩煂懙?,并引用了弗拉基米爾·列寧的名言。
摩根大通并不是唯一一家在最近幾周下調經(jīng)濟預測的大型銀行;高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)上周也對客戶表示,銀行業(yè)危機可能會給美國經(jīng)濟增長帶來嚴重打擊。美國財政部的前部長拉里·薩默斯近幾個月來,甚至在銀行業(yè)危機爆發(fā)前,就曾經(jīng)多次警告說,經(jīng)濟也可能走向“威利狼時刻”(Wile E. Coyote Moment),即已經(jīng)沖出懸崖,但仍對即將發(fā)生的崩盤渾然不覺,還在優(yōu)哉游哉。
美國歷史上始于2009年的最長牛市,直到2020年才因為新冠疫情而終結。2020年短暫的經(jīng)濟衰退很快被2021年的另一輪猛烈的牛市所取代,但在經(jīng)濟增長放緩一年之后,人們期待已久的明斯基時刻或者威利狼時刻可能終于到來了。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
A series of banking crises in March headlined by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank has forced analysts from multiple banks, including JPMorgan Chase, to rewrite their recession forecasts from scratch, as months of small victories against inflation and a relatively strong economy were potentially swept away in under two weeks.
Even if the government and the private sector are able to successfully contain contagion from the bank collapses spreading through the economy, the failures may still lead to lasting damage for the U.S. financial system. Some banks are teetering on the edge in Europe and the U.S., while jittery markets and the promise of stricter regulation could lead to a credit crunch—a steep decline in banks’ willingness to lend caused by a lack of funds.
It adds up to an impossible choice the Federal Reserve has to make when officials meet on March 22: Slow down the pace of interest rate hikes or plow ahead to bring down resurgent inflation and risk amplifying damage to the economy. But as far as the Fed is concerned, hopes of engineering a soft landing for the economy and avoiding a recession may already be in the rearview mirror.
“The Fed is facing a difficult task on March 22, but it is likely already past the point of no return,” JPMorgan strategists led by Marko Kolanovic, the bank’s chief global markets strategist, wrote in a note to clients on March 20. “A soft landing now looks unlikely, with the airplane in a tailspin (lack of market confidence) and engines about to turn off (bank lending).”
It is still unclear how far contagion from SVB will spread. New York–based Signature Bank failed days after SVB, requiring sweeping government measures to restore confidence that account holders in both banks would be made whole, but other small-sized and regional banks remain in precarious positions. San Francisco–based First Republic remains at high risk, although larger U.S. banks banded together last week to provide a $30 billion deposit to prop up its finances. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also pledged on March 21 that the government was prepared to step in again if issues at other banks “pose the risk of contagion.” But even if depositors are safeguarded, the damage may have already been done.
“Even if central bankers successfully contain contagion, credit conditions look set to tighten more rapidly because of pressure from both markets and regulators,” JPMorgan wrote.
The analysts referred to current challenges as a possible “Minsky moment,” named after the American economist Hyman Minsky, who famously predicted that extended bull markets naturally end in epic and monumental collapses. A Minsky moment happens when the inevitable check comes due and the house of cards finally falls down. JPMorgan analysts wrote our Minsky moment is nearing.
Investors and historians have warned for years that an extended bull market in the U.S. since 2009 would inevitably lead to an economic overcorrection: “The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble,” investor and market historian Jeremy Grantham wrote in 2021. More recently, Grantham has been warning of an all-consuming “everything bubble,” which he called “pretty damn big” during an interview in March with economist David Rosenberg.
“‘There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen,’” JPMorgan analysts wrote, citing a famous Vladimir Lenin quote.
JPMorgan isn’t the only major bank to have downgraded its economic forecasts in recent weeks; Goldman Sachs also told clients last week the banking crisis could deliver a severe blow to U.S. economic growth. And former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has warned multiple times in recent months even before the banking crisis that the economy could be headed for a “Wile E. Coyote moment,” having already run off a cliff edge but still blissfully unaware of the sudden crash about to happen.
The longest bull market in U.S. history that began in 2009 only ended in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The short-lived 2020 recession was quickly replaced by another ferocious bull market in 2021, but after a year of slowing growth, the long-awaited Minsky or Wile E. Coyote moment may have finally arrived.